Projected Standings

Projected Standings Notes

The Projected Standings software is a work in progress. It's intended to be a 'somewhat reliable' indicator of how strong each team is; perhaps similar to the so-called 'power ratings'. It has its limitations.

Projected statistics are used to determine 162 games played for each position in the field other than pitchers. When a starter doesn't project to play 162 games, the backups fill in the appropriate number of games.

For pitchers, the number of starts are determined from each team's five starters, followed by up to three backup starters to total 162 starts.

Each relief pitcher (short reliever) is used for bullpen contribution. Then, any starting pitcher with innings available (not used in the 162 games for starters) is used to give the bullpen a contribution of 486 innings pitched (162 x 3 innings of relief).

Injuries will happen and perhaps be the biggest contributor against forecasting reliability. These projections do consider bench strength, but only to cover 162 games at each position. When injuries occur, bench strength will be important; teams with a deep bench don't get full credit in the projections.

Free agent drafts during the season can improve some teams. Those are future events that cannot be forecast.

Strength of schedule is not considered in the projections. It's as if all teams are in one big division.

I'll be thinking about ways to increase the reliability of the projections. It may even turn out to not be worthwhile. Any comments or suggestions are appreciated.

Ken

Team Rosters

(individual player projected stats)

Player Projection Notes

I used data forecast by Baseball Headquarters. For pitchers, projected IP and ERA are used. For hitters, projected AB, OPS and steals are used.

Defensive range and errors are not included in the individual player projections. (I would like to, it is not included in the downloadable data from Scoresheet.)